Is it the market or your sales team?

Hi Everyone,

Every leader has sat in a pipeline review, listening to why the numbers are behind. The market is saturated, the product needs more features, the price doesn't work.

Some of those reasons are excuses, and some are true. The problem is determining the difference between the two.

Today we're sharing two numbers from your CRM that will help.

Check 1: Is the slowdown hitting every rep?

For each rep, look at how much of their sales target they hit in the last two quarters. Then look at which kinds of customers their deals came from.

If your best reps are still closing deals with your usual customers while the others fall behind, the market is fine because somebody is still winning in it. The people who are behind need coaching, and you don't need a new target customer.

If everybody is behind with the same kind of customer, including the reps who hit their numbers last year, the problem is bigger than any one person. When your best people can't sell to a customer group anymore, something has changed in that group or in the wider market.

Check 2: Are the "wrong" customers easier to win?

Look at your last 50 won deals and identify the customers that fall outside your ideal customer profile (ICP). They might be in a different industry, a different company size, or simply not the type of buyer you normally target.

Now ask: Were those customers harder or easier to win than your typical deals?

If they were harder, your ICP is probably still right. A few outliers found you; your team worked to win them, and that's normal.

But if they were easier to win — and several of them share similar characteristics — pay attention. The customers your ICP says you shouldn't target may be telling you that your market has shifted, while your profile hasn't.

What your results mean

These two checks point to one of four situations.

Only some reps are behind, and the unusual deals were hard to win. Your market and ICP are probably fine. Focus on coaching the reps who are struggling.

Everyone is behind, and the unusual deals were easy to win. Your ICP may no longer reflect the market. Look for the customer group that keeps appearing in those easier wins and consider adding it to your target profile.

Everyone is behind, and nothing is easy to win. The problem may be bigger than sales. Look at the product, positioning, and pricing before changing the team or widening your ICP.

Only some reps are behind, and their unusual deals were easy to win. Your strongest reps may have spotted an emerging customer segment before the rest of the business. Find out what they're seeing.

Widening your ICP can feel like lowering the bar. It isn't. You've tested the team's assumptions against the data rather than simply accepting them.

If the numbers support what the team is telling you, you may have found a new customer segment. If they don't, you can coach the performance problem with evidence rather than opinion.

Go deeper

👉 CNBC: Mixpanel replaces its CEO as it refocuses on bigger clients — read this for the middle of the Mixpanel story, told while the company was still climbing out of it.

👉 TechCrunch: Seven years after its last round, Mixpanel raises a $200M Series C — see how the recovery played out, including the products they shut down to get there.

👉 Koka Sexton: The ICP definition problem — use his 50-deal audit if you want to go further on check two; his numbers on off-profile wins will surprise you.

👉 Salesforce: Sales reps spend less than 30% of their time selling — worth a skim before you read too much into rep behavior; it shows how little selling time they have to spend.

Coming up tomorrow

In tomorrow's issue, you'll learn the 90-minute Friday session that keeps your weekend clear and your Monday planned.