Two questions for hard decisions

Hi Everyone,

“What would the best version of me do in this situation?”

You’ve probably asked yourself some version of that question when facing a difficult decision. Research into the “best possible self” exercise suggests that it can improve mood and optimism. But that does not necessarily mean it will improve the quality of the decision itself.

For that, two other questions may be more useful.

Both have been popularized by well-known leaders, and each helps you step back from the emotions and pressures of the moment.

What will this decision look like in ten years?

Suzy Welch, the former editor-in-chief of the Harvard Business Review, developed a simple framework for decisions she felt stuck on:

“What will the consequences of this choice be in ten minutes, ten months, and ten years?”

She calls it 10-10-10.

The exact time frames are not the point. The value comes from examining the same decision from three different perspectives.

The ten-minute answer is often shaped by whatever pressure you are experiencing right now—an unhappy client, a nervous investor, or an uncomfortable conversation you would rather avoid.

The ten-year answer is usually less influenced by those immediate emotions.

The ten-month perspective sits between the two. It helps you see whether the choice that feels easiest today will still make sense once the immediate pressure has passed.

Try applying 10-10-10 to one decision this week. If all three perspectives point in the same direction, act. If they do not, examine what is driving the disagreement before you commit.

Would I be comfortable if this appeared on the front page tomorrow?

Warren Buffett described this test to a Congressional committee in 1991, when he was helping Salomon Brothers recover from a bond-trading scandal.

He asked employees to imagine that any decision they were about to make would appear the following day on the front page of their local newspaper—where it would be read by their family, friends, and neighbors and reported by an unfriendly but intelligent journalist.

He reinforced the message with a warning:

“Lose money for the firm, and I will be understanding. Lose a shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless.”

The newspaper test turns a private decision into an imagined public record. If you would be embarrassed to see your actions described honestly in public, you probably already know that something is wrong.

Which question should you use?

Use 10-10-10 when you are weighing a genuine trade-off and cannot decide whether the short-term or long-term perspective should carry more weight.

It is particularly useful for hiring decisions when you are on the fence, investments whose returns are uncertain, and projects you are deciding whether to continue or stop.

Use the newspaper test when a decision appears acceptable on paper, but something about it still makes you uncomfortable.

It can help when you are being asked to approve a questionable workaround, make a promise to a client or prospective hire, or send a message while you are angry or frustrated.

If you would rather nobody saw what you were about to do, you probably already have your answer.

Neither question replaces the analysis required for a major decision.

But most of the decisions we make each day are not major. They are smaller choices made in a minute or two—and both questions are designed to help us make those choices more wisely.

Go deeper

👉 Suzy Welch: The 10-10-10 rule — read this if you want the original version of the three-question test in Welch's own words.

👉 Corporate Compliance Insights: When in doubt, apply Warren Buffett's newspaper test — a short walk through how the test works and why Buffett has stuck with it for thirty years.

👉 Hal Hershfield (UCLA Anderson): Considering the future self — use this if you want the research behind why thinking about your future self actually changes present decisions.

Coming up tomorrow

Tomorrow we’re covering a one-page business case your champion can use to sell the deal internally, using their priorities, numbers, and language.

Have a good one.

P.S. Which of the two questions did you try, and on what decision? Let us know.