This simple tool that protects your cash

Hi Everyone,

Looking at cash once a month means finding out about problems three or four weeks late. The fixes that would have worked (like calling a customer about an overdue invoice or delaying a hire) are no longer on the table.

Today, we're walking through the 13-week cash flow forecast and how operators at every size use it to make better calls.

This simple tool catches problems before they materialize - yet only 43% of finance teams use a tool like this, according to the 2026 AFP benchmarking survey.

What it is

A 13-week cash flow forecast is a weekly view of cash coming in and cash going out, for the 13 weeks ahead.

It's different from your monthly P&L. The P&L books revenue when a customer signs. The forecast shows nothing until the cash hits your bank account, which is often 60 or 90 days later.

Each Friday, the team compares what actually happened to what was forecasted. If a customer paid five days late or a vendor pulled an invoice forward, that shows up. You roll the model forward one week, so you always have 13 weeks of forward visibility.

Why this works

A company that spots a cash shortfall in week 9 has choices. It can pull forward a customer renewal, push back a vendor payment, pause a hire, or draw on its line of credit. A company that spots the same shortfall in week 12 has almost none of those options.

Bain made the 13-week forecast Step 2 of its cash management playbook for downturns. In their words, it "diagnoses the severity of your current position."

Alvarez & Marsal published the same advice in March. Christina Barakett, an A&M managing director, wrote that the 13-week forecast is "equally valuable in non-distressed environments." It surfaces working capital pressure early, before monthly reports show it.

Two operators who used it

Greg Henry is CFO of Couchbase, the public database company. His finance team built a weekly cash forecast, and it showed Couchbase could grow faster without raising more capital.

The team cut DSO by 10 days and dropped forecast build time from 10 days to a few hours. Henry has said publicly that Couchbase hasn't raised outside capital in three years because it now lives off the cash it generates.

Jeff Burkland was Segment's fractional CFO before its $3.2 billion sale to Twilio. Burkland built a model showing what would happen if Segment moved customers from monthly billing to annual prepayment. Co-founder Peter Reinhardt later said on a podcast that switching the term cut Segment's burn rate roughly in half. That single contract change extended runway substantially.

How to run one this quarter

Use the version that fits your stage.

Under 50 people: A spreadsheet works. Pull starting cash, expected collections from your top 10 customers, payroll, rent, top vendors, and tax obligations. Your fractional CFO or controller updates it every Friday.

50 to 500 people: Connect a spreadsheet or a finance planning tool to your accounting system so the data pulls in automatically. Your Head of Finance or Controller owns the weekly update.

Larger than that: A dedicated treasury or planning lead runs it, usually inside a tool that connects directly to your bank accounts and ERP. If you're at this size, your finance team probably already knows the options.

Three rules apply at every size

1. Track actual cash in and cash out by week, not P&L numbers. The point is to answer "do we have cash on Tuesday."
2. Save your original forecast somewhere you can't edit it. Every Friday, compare what actually happened to what you predicted. If a week is more than 10% off, write down why. Was it timing, or did something permanent change?
3. Set trigger points before you need them. "If cash falls below $X by week 6, we pause backfills." "If revolver usage hits 30% of commitment, we call the lender." Trigger points written down in calm weeks are easier to follow in stressed ones.

Go deeper

👉 Bain & Company: Cash management practices to weather a downturn – Bain's full cash war room playbook, with the 13-week forecast as step two.

👉 Alvarez & Marsal: The 13-week cash flow – A&M's March 2026 point of view on why the tool belongs in non-distressed CFO toolkits.

👉 Burkland: Smart strategies fractional CFOs use to stretch a startup's cash – Includes the Segment prepayment model and other startup-stage cash tactics.

👉 Carta: State of Private Markets Q1 2025 – Down rounds, bridge rounds, and the Series B time gap data behind today's funding environment.

Coming up on Monday

On Monday, we're breaking down how to find the stage in your business where growth from existing customers is leaking.

Happy Friday!

P.S. How far out can your team see cash right now: one week, four, or thirteen? Hit reply with the number.